Five months ago, when Jessica Cisneros launched her second bid to unseat Congressman Henry Cuellar, she framed the story as a case of finishing what she started.
In the March 2020 Democratic primary, Cisneros, a young immigration attorney and movement progressive from Laredo, came within 3.6 percentage points of knocking off the District 28 representative.
“They said we had no chance,” Cisneros recounted in a campaign video. “But we showed them that the dreams of immigrants, truckers, rancheros and teachers can be just as powerful as their corporate dollars.”
Cisneros said she planned to build on that momentum and pull off the victory that narrowly eluded her in the last election cycle.
For all of Cisneros’s evident passion and ability to connect with the Bernie Sanders/Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wing of the Democratic Party, I’ve had doubts about her prospects.
We sometimes see political challengers exceed expectations and come close to knocking off incumbents, only to return for a rematch and find that the climate isn’t as welcoming.
I call it the Billy Conn Effect.
Boxing historians will know that the crafty, undersized Conn took on the near-invincible Joe Louis for the heavyweight title in 1941 and had the fight won until he got greedy in the 13th round.
Conn’s strong performance created tremendous anticipation for a rematch, but when it finally happened in 1946, Conn had lost his edge and Louis was ready for him. The champ cruised to an eighth-round knockout win.
We saw the Billy Conn Effect at work in last year’s mayoral election. Two years after then-Councilman Greg Brockhouse came within an eyelash of knocking off Ron Nirenberg in the 2019 mayoral runoff, Nirenberg disposed of Brockhouse by a 2-1 margin.
In the intervening period, Nirenberg solidified his support and Brockhouse couldn’t muster the energy of his first challenge.
Over the past few months, I’ve wondered whether Cisneros might be facing a similar scenario.
After all, her 2020 campaign was a hard-to-replicate mix of timing and execution.
For years, South Texas progressives had been stewing in frustration while Cuellar sided with Republicans on a host of issues: voting against the Dodd-Frank financial regulatory reform bill, supporting the denial of federal funding for so-called sanctuary cities, opposing abortion access and blithely accepting campaign cash from private prisons.
Cisneros tapped into that frustration. She also benefited from the coattails of Sanders, a supporter of her campaign who was on the Texas primary ballot as a presidential candidate.
Sanders carried Bexar County in the presidential race. Cisneros likewise had big success in the San Antonio area, pulling in 66.8 percent of the vote against Cuellar. Bexar County made the District 28 primary a close contest.
This year, there is no Bernie Sanders to boost turnout for Cisneros. There is, however, the complicating presence of a third primary candidate, former teacher and organizer Tannya Benavides.
Cuellar’s longtime political guru, Colin Strother, assured the Texas Observer in November that his client will defeat Cisneros “by a country mile.”
That was debatable two months ago. This week, the race took on the look of a snow globe that’s been shaken and turned every which way.
On Wednesday, FBI agents executed a court-authorized raid of Cuellar’s Laredo home and campaign headquarters. The raid is part of a federal investigation connected to Azerbaijan, according to ABC News.
Cuellar’s connections to the Azerbaijan government and oil industry are extensive. He has served as co-chair of the Congressional Azerbaijan Caucus, traveled to the former Soviet republic and repeatedly championed its interests.
Three weeks before the start of early voting, Cuellar is caught in a situation that has the contours of a scandal, but whose details are uncertain.
One of the subpoenas issued by a federal grand jury called for records “relating to anything of value” that Cuellar, his wife or their associates may have been offered by foreign officials or business leaders, according to ABC News.
That sounds like trouble, but we don’t where it will lead or how soon it will be resolved.
We also don’t know what Democratic primary voters will make of this foul-smelling ambiguity.
For her part, Cisneros has wisely avoided any grand pronouncements.
“We are aware of the news regarding Congressman Cuellar and the active FBI investigation,” she said in a Thursday statement. “We are closely watching as this develops.
“In the meantime, we are focused on our campaign to deliver change to South Texas families and will not be making any additional comments at this time.”
District 28 primary voters must now do more than assess Cuellar’s 17-year congressional record. They must also make sense of a mystery.
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